Pearce Dietrich gives his best bets for the Bills vs. Jets Week 6 matchup.
New York Jets Moneyline (+114)
Everyone loves narratives. Storylines sell but are they profitable? Humans tell stories. And there are a handful of stories to tell and sell on Monday night. This is a big day for New York. Nearly all of their professional teams will be in action. There will be a lot of betting action in the Empire State for this epic evening. From Buffalo to the Bronx, the bets will be hitting the books. Not the storybooks, the sports books. These books aren’t filled with words. Their medium is numbers.
The Bills looked great until they didn’t. Buffalo obliterated the Jags in prime time three weeks ago. They looked like Super Bowl contenders. The next week, Baltimore blasted the Bills 35-10. A 23-20 road loss to the Texans followed in Week 5. They’re reeling. Fortunately for the Bills, the Jets are in a worse spot. Their star quarterback is back this season, but their coach is gone. Both teams qualify for the famed bounce-back spot categorization. One will prove the narrative to be true and one will prove the story is false. Will it be the Bills’ will or Jets’ bets?
This line is tidy. Every line should be tidy. There is parity across the NFL. Heavy dogs are covering at a preposterous rate — dogs of +5.5 or greater are now 19-5-1 ATS. They’re not just covering. The dogs are winning — 13 outright wins this season. The sportsbooks have regrouped. This line would have been much different two weeks ago. The Jets are small dogs at home and they deserve it.
London losses can be dismissed. It’s common for teams to lay eggs overseas. The Jets aren’t a great team but they’re a developing team. Rodgers and his receivers need reps. The defense is fine. The Jets are fine if they play mistake-free football. The Bills are fine, too. But the Bills are expected to be better. Those expectations need to be tempered. The season started well but Buffalo didn’t face stiff competition. Their questionable collection of offensive weapons surprised spectators. Their sudden sinking isn’t a surprise. “They are who they thought they were.” Josh Allen is still a mercurial QB and is surrounded by the weakest support in all of his seasons. A matchup against a top-tier defense is not the spot Allen wants to be in. This is not the spot in New York that Buffalo wants to be in. The Bills have lost their last two matchups in New York City. The Jets defense held the Bills to 17 points in 2022 and 16 points in 2023.
This game comes down to Aaron Rodgers. The Jets’ defense will keep New York in this game. They might win the game. That is if Rodgers doesn’t lose it. Rodgers needs a win in a bad way. The Jets need a win or this whole thing will implode. One win can put out the fire and calm things down. This isn’t a new situation for the veteran. He’s been in worse spots and his message was simple. “Relax. R-E-L-A-X.” Rodgers can relax. He doesn’t need ayahuasca. He needs reps. The Jets have the defense. They have offensive weapons. They need to relax and put in the work. The Bills’ defense is just as questionable as their offense. Just because a team was great for years doesn’t mean they’re great this year. Rodgers and the Jets can move the ball against Buffalo. They just can’t afford to turn the ball over or take sacks. The Bills’ defense has five interceptions this season but only one in the last two games. They piled up 10 sacks in the first three weeks but only two since and their QB Pressure Rate ranks in the bottom half of the NFL (19.4%). Rodgers can get this done.
Aaron Rodgers Passing Yards 225+ (+100)
Big players step up in big games. All eyes are on New York always, but on Monday there is only one state in the sports union. Is Rodgers dusted or rusted? Is he rested after a trip to England? Let the New York tabloids tell the tales and drive the sales. The numbers are what matters. Can Rodgers deliver? To deliver he needs to be standing and that should be the case against the Bills. Rodgers may be under media pressure but defensive pressure shouldn’t be a problem on Monday night. The Bills are one of the worst teams in the NFL when it comes to hurrying a quarterback (4.6% QB Hurry Rate). Lamar Jackson did what he does and embarrassed the Bills in their Week 4 prime-time matchup. CJ Stroud torched them for 331 yards in Week 5. The Bills secondary looks good on paper but the results don’t lie. If opposing quarterbacks have time, receivers get open.
Rodgers attempted 35 passes in Week 3. That number increased to 42 the next week and 54 in Week 5. That’s a lot of pass attempts. He’s amassed 750 yards in the last three weeks. His passing yards will go up as he becomes more familiar with his receivers. The Nathanial Hacket offense isn’t new. His former Green Bay coordinator is on the same page. This isn’t another story about storylines and pages. It’s simply just reps, receivers and Rodgers. Let him rip. Keep him up — on his feet. Let the Jets’ fleet dodge defeat. It’s time to soar and score. Take the 225 yards or more.
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